Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Earnings miss or guidance downgrade
Calibrated 100% · raw 700% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/29/2026, 11:15:16 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
58%
ORYN Consensus
65%
Signal Score
+7.0
Opportunity
5.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,512,538
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 700.0¢
Entry: 55-61
—
Resolution
4d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
5 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday) is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the final session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN/history, published under "Historical Prices." In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market indicates a 58.5% probability that Amazon (AMZN) will close above $235 by the end of the trading week ending June 29, suggesting a slight bullish sentiment. The resolution is based on Yahoo Finance's official closing prices, accounting for potential corporate actions or market disruptions.
Amazon's stock could finish above $235 if strong Q2 earnings, cloud growth, or AI-related revenue surprises investors. Additionally, market optimism around e-commerce and retail expansion may drive the price higher. Technical momentum or short-covering could also contribute to upward momentum.
Amazon may fail to surpass $235 if macroeconomic headwinds (e.g., inflation, consumer spending slowdown) or regulatory pressures weigh on sentiment. Weakness in AWS or ad revenue could also drag the stock lower. Broader market downturns or sector-specific risks may further suppress the price.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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