This market will resolve according to the number of views the next YouTube video posted by MrBeast after this market's creation gets in the first 7 days after being posted. If MrBeast does not post a YouTube video by July 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this is MrBeast's YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast), specifically the 'views' counter for the described video. Note: This market refers to MrBeast's next video posted. Shorts, previews, or other videos released other than the referenced video will not be considered.
Key risk: Unforeseen algorithmic penalties or adpocalypse risks
AI updated 6/27/2026, 8:15:21 PM
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
This market will resolve according to the number of views the next YouTube video posted by MrBeast after this market's creation gets in the first 7 days after being posted. If MrBeast does not post a YouTube video by July 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this is MrBeast's YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast), specifically the 'views' counter for the described video. Note: This market refers to MrBeast's next video posted. Shorts, previews, or other videos released other than the referenced video will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
0%
ORYN Consensus
0%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market for whether MrBeast's next video will get less than 40 million views in its first week is highly unlikely, with a current probability of 0.40%. Historical data suggests MrBeast consistently surpasses this threshold, though potential shifts in audience engagement or content strategy could alter outcomes.
A bearish outcome (less than 40M views) could materialize if MrBeast's content strategy shifts toward smaller, niche audiences or if YouTube's algorithm suppresses his reach. External factors like platform policy changes or competitor saturation may also reduce his typical viewership.
MrBeast has a strong track record of exceeding 40M views within the first week for nearly all his videos. His viral content, massive subscriber base, and cross-platform promotion make this outcome statistically improbable without significant disruption to his content model.
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Will MrBeast's next video get less than 40 million views on week 1? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 0.4% while ORYN AI estimates 0.4%.
ORYN aggregates forecasting intelligence across Asia-focused categories including crypto, AI, cricket, startups, and global events.
