Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Sudden macroeconomic shifts (e.g., unexpected inflation data)
AI updated 6/26/2026, 1:47:13 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 22% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
51%
Signal Score
+1.0
Opportunity
0.8
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
BTCUSD>60,200 on June 26, 10AM ET
correlates · strength 60%
correlated market
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 100.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
9
Price history
2 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Close" price for the BTC/USDT 1 hour candle that ends on the time and date specified in the title is higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1h" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) closing above $60,200 on June 26 at 10AM ET shows a neutral probability of 50%, indicating balanced expectations among traders. The resolution depends solely on Binance's 1-hour candle close price, with no external biases or market distortions observed.
Bitcoin could break above $60,200 due to strong institutional demand, favorable macroeconomic conditions (e.g., lower inflation expectations), or a surge in retail sentiment. A sustained uptrend in the past 24 hours (e.g., ETF inflows or geopolitical tailwinds) might push prices higher by the resolution time.
Bitcoin may fail to surpass $60,200 if macroeconomic headwinds (e.g., hawkish Fed signals) dampen risk appetite or if profit-taking occurs after recent rallies. Regulatory uncertainty or exchange-specific liquidity issues on Binance could also cap upside momentum.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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