Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: High intraday volatility around the resolution time
Calibrated 100% · raw 1050% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/26/2026, 1:07:15 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
77%
ORYN Consensus
66%
Signal Score
-10.5
Opportunity
7.6
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
Directly related to January 2024: Will Bitcoin hit $50,000?: Reaching $50,000 is a stepping stone to reaching $58,000
correlates · strength 60%
Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages? is related to Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on July 1? as a potential indicator of global economic uncertainty and market volatility.
correlates · strength 60%
Directly related to Will Bitcoin close above $60000 at the end of Mar 2024?: Both predictions are bullish on Bitcoin's price
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Will the US debt ceiling be raised by the end of June 2023? (M$10,000 subsidy) is related to Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on July 1? as a potential economic indicator and market stabilizer.
correlates · strength 60%
Will Manifold.love reach 1000 daily active users (7d average) by Feb 14, 2024? is related to Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on July 1? due to potential market volatility and uncertainty, affecting investor sentiment and market performance.
correlates · strength 60%
Inversely related to Will Manifund's loan to @MarcusAbramovitch's crypto fund be repaid without incident?: A decline in Bitcoin price may increase the likelihood of loan repayment issues
correlates · strength 60%
Will OpenAI become significantly less closed source as a result of the leadership transition? is related to Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on July 1? as a potential indicator of market sentiment and investor confidence in the tech industry.
correlates · strength 60%
Directly related to 2023: Will Bitcoin reach $30,000?: Reaching $30,000 is a precursor to reaching $58,000
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -1050.0¢
Entry: 74-80
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
23 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market predicts a 66% probability that Bitcoin's price on Binance will exceed $58,000 at noon ET on July 1, indicating moderate bullish sentiment. The resolution is tied to a 1-minute candle close, reducing noise but increasing volatility risks.
Bitcoin's recent trend shows resilience above $58,000, with institutional adoption and macroeconomic tailwinds (e.g., potential Fed rate cuts) supporting higher prices. Short-term momentum could push the price higher due to leveraged trading activity on Binance.
Bitcoin faces resistance around $58,000, with macroeconomic uncertainty (e.g., inflation data, geopolitical tensions) or regulatory news potentially triggering a pullback. Low liquidity during midday ET could exacerbate volatility-driven declines.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
Route to regulated venues when you are ready. ORYN never holds your funds.
ORYN does not hold funds or execute trades. You will be redirected to a third-party regulated venue.
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