Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Potential late revisions to temperature records
Calibrated 100% · raw 140% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/1/2026, 5:16:43 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 50% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
2%
Signal Score
+1.4
Opportunity
1.2
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,275,229
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 140.0¢
Entry: 0-4
—
Resolution
2d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
15 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market suggests a low probability (1.85%) that Warsaw will reach 29°C on July 3, 2026, based on historical temperature trends and seasonal patterns. The resolution hinges on precise meteorological data from Warsaw Chopin Airport Station.
A bullish outcome could materialize if an unusual heatwave or prolonged high-pressure system affects Central Europe in early July 2026, pushing temperatures significantly above the 2020-2025 average of ~25-27°C for this date. Climate change trends may also increase the likelihood of extreme temperatures.
A bearish outcome is more likely given Warsaw's typical July 3 temperatures historically averaging 22-26°C with rare spikes above 28°C. Persistent cloud cover, rainfall, or a cooler-than-average air mass could suppress temperatures well below 29°C.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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