Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Revisions to historical temperature data post-resolution
AI updated 6/30/2026, 1:15:32 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 50% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
41%
ORYN Consensus
41%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,747,253
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
MEDIUM
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 38-44
—
Resolution
1d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Houston's highest temperature on July 1, 2026, currently reflects a 41% probability of the temperature falling within the 94-95°F range. Historical data and seasonal patterns suggest moderate confidence in this outcome.
A bullish scenario would be supported by above-average summer temperatures in the Gulf Coast region, driven by persistent high-pressure systems or heat domes. Climate trends indicate a slight warming bias, increasing the likelihood of temperatures reaching the upper end of the range.
A bearish outcome would result from atypical weather patterns, such as unexpected cloud cover, precipitation, or a cold front disrupting seasonal heat. La Niña or other oceanic anomalies could also moderate temperatures, reducing the probability of the 94-95°F range.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
No direct venue links for this market. ORYN exclusive markets are intelligence-only.
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