Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Exchange-specific liquidity constraints on Binance
AI updated 7/2/2026, 7:47:20 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 35% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,734,792
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Close" price for the ETH/USDT 1 hour candle that ends on the time and date specified in the title is higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1h" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market for Ethereum (ETH/USDT) closing above 1,590 on July 2 at 5AM ET is at a neutral probability of 50.00%, reflecting balanced expectations of price movement. The resolution depends solely on Binance's ETH/USDT 1-hour candle close, with no external biases evident.
Ethereum could close above 1,590 if macroeconomic conditions improve, such as a dovish Fed pivot or risk-on sentiment in crypto markets. Additionally, if Ethereum's network activity (e.g., gas fees, TVL) strengthens, it may attract renewed buying interest. Technical breakouts above resistance levels (e.g., 1,600) could also trigger short-term momentum.
Ethereum may fail to close above 1,590 if macroeconomic headwinds persist, such as a hawkish Fed stance or broader market downturn. Regulatory uncertainty (e.g., SEC actions) or Ethereum-specific issues (e.g., staking withdrawals, network congestion) could dampen sentiment. Technical failure to break key resistance levels may lead to profit-taking.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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