Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Match cancellation or delay beyond 7 days without a result
Calibrated 100% · raw 400% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/28/2026, 10:00:40 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
54%
Signal Score
+4.0
Opportunity
2.7
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,075,791
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 400.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
8d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
17 points
This market refers to the tennis match between Inaki Montes and Federico Bondioli in the Troyes, originally scheduled for June 30, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Montes" if Inaki Montes wins by 2 or more sets than Federico Bondioli, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Bondioli." If the match begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins or delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a result, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official Challenger results.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market favors Inaki Montes (-1.5) over Federico Bondioli (+1.5) in their upcoming tennis match, with a 54% probability. The handicap implies a slight edge for Montes, requiring a 2-set victory margin for resolution.
Montes benefits from his stronger recent form, higher ATP ranking (if applicable), and potential home-court advantage in Troyes. A dominant serve game or aggressive baseline play could secure the required 2-set margin, aligning with the 54% probability.
Bondioli's superior clay-court performance (if applicable) or recent upsets against higher-ranked opponents could undermine Montes' advantage. External factors like fatigue, injury, or unfavorable weather conditions may also disrupt the expected outcome.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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